Report: Does independence still matter? An Ipsos and Centre for Public Policy report

Read the report: Does Independence Still Matter? An Ipsos and Centre for Public Policy report

The report, Does Independence Still Matter?, was written by Mark McGeoghegan and published jointly by Ipsos and the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Public Policy on Friday 1 May 2026.

Author:

Mark McGeoghegan, Research Associate at UofG Centre for Public Policy, Associate Advisory Director at Ipsos

About this report

As issues like healthcare, immigration, education, and the cost of living have risen on the political agenda, the salience of the constitutional question has declined.

However, while salience has declined, this report finds that constitutional preferences remain the strongest determinant of the choice voters make in Scotland.

The key findings are:

Constitutional preferences are the strongest determinant of voting intention among Scottish voters. While left-right and libertarian-authoritarian positioning also matter, they matter within constitutional blocs, not between constitutional blocs, and voters are highly unlikely to switch from one constitutional bloc to another.

While the overall size of the left-liberal bloc in Scotland is similar to the last election, there are fewer left-liberal voters among those who support the Union. A fifth of total left-liberal and pro-union voters currently intend to switch to a right-conservative party, driven principally by Labour voters switching to Reform UK. Ipsos’ latest polling suggests a quarter of 2021 Labour voters now intend to vote for Nigel Farage’s party.

The strength of constitutional preference as a driver of voting intention is helping prop up the cohesion of the left-liberal party bloc in Scotland. 28% of SNP, ‘left-liberal’ voters actually lean towards the authoritarian end of the libertarian-authoritarian scale, but lack of a viable, pro-independence, right-conservative party to switch to.